Files
pickling-mes/backend/app/services/prediction.py
wangyu 6ae24cb14d Add PyTorch/ONNX prediction models with physics fallback
- Train 3 MLP networks (acid speed 14→1, tension 4→10, quality 6→2)
  on 12,000 synthetic samples generated from physics models + noise
- Export pre-trained ONNX models to pt_models/ directory
- Rewrite prediction.py: ONNX inference first, physics fallback if unavailable
- Add onnxruntime + numpy to requirements.txt (Aliyun mirror for Docker)
- Use Tsinghua mirror in Dockerfile for pip installs

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-27 17:31:25 +08:00

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"""
工艺预测模型 — 灰箱物理模型 + ONNX 神经网络双栈
推理优先级:
1. ONNX 模型onnxruntime若 pt_models/ 目录存在则加载)
2. 物理灰箱模型Arrhenius 解析解,始终可用)
训练:运行 backend/train_models.py 重新生成 pt_models/*.onnx
校准K_cal 系数持久化在 cal_coeffs.json两个栈都使用同一套 K_cal
"""
import math
import json
import os
from pathlib import Path
from typing import List, Dict, Any, Optional, Tuple
from loguru import logger
# ── 校准系数持久化 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
_CAL_FILE = Path(__file__).parent / "cal_coeffs.json"
def _load_cal() -> Dict[str, float]:
try:
with open(_CAL_FILE) as f:
return json.load(f)
except Exception:
return {}
def _save_cal(d: Dict[str, float]):
with open(_CAL_FILE, "w") as f:
json.dump(d, f, indent=2)
# ── ONNX 推理层 ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
_PT_DIR = Path(__file__).parent / "pt_models"
_scalers: Optional[Dict] = None
_sess: Dict[str, Any] = {}
try:
import onnxruntime as ort
import numpy as _np
_sp = _PT_DIR / "scalers.json"
if _sp.exists():
with open(_sp) as f:
_scalers = json.load(f)
for _name in ("acid_speed", "tension", "quality"):
_p = _PT_DIR / f"{_name}.onnx"
if _p.exists():
_sess[_name] = ort.InferenceSession(
str(_p), providers=["CPUExecutionProvider"]
)
if _sess:
logger.info(f"PT models loaded: {list(_sess.keys())}")
except ImportError:
logger.warning("onnxruntime not installed — using physics fallback")
def _pt_infer(name: str, x_raw: List[float]) -> Optional[List[float]]:
"""标准化 → ONNX 推理 → 反标准化,返回输出向量;失败返回 None。"""
if name not in _sess or _scalers is None:
return None
try:
sc = _scalers[name]
xm = _np.array(sc["X_mean"], dtype=_np.float32)
xs = _np.array(sc["X_std"], dtype=_np.float32)
ym = _np.array(sc["y_mean"], dtype=_np.float32)
ys = _np.array(sc["y_std"], dtype=_np.float32)
x = (_np.array(x_raw, dtype=_np.float32) - xm) / xs
raw = _sess[name].run(None, {"input": x.reshape(1, -1)})[0][0]
return (raw * ys + ym).tolist()
except Exception as e:
logger.warning(f"PT infer {name} failed: {e}")
return None
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# 1. 酸洗速度模型
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
class AcidSpeedModel:
"""
灰箱: Arrhenius 动力学 + 二分搜索
PT栈: 14 维输入 → 最大速度 (m/min)
输入: [thickness, scale_weight, conc×6, temp×6]
"""
TANK_LENGTH = 18.0
NUM_TANKS = 6
K0 = 0.075
EA_R = 5413.0
T_REF = 348.15
C_REF = 180.0
N_CONC = 1.2
V_MIN = 20.0
V_MAX = 180.0
SCALE_RATE_FACTOR = 0.70 * 1.0 + 0.20 * 0.25 + 0.10 * 0.15
CAL_KEY = "acid_speed_kcal"
def __init__(self, thickness, width, steel_grade,
acid_conc_list, acid_temp_list,
scale_weight=8.5, target_pi=95.0):
if len(acid_conc_list) != self.NUM_TANKS:
raise ValueError(f"acid_conc_list 需要 {self.NUM_TANKS} 个元素")
if len(acid_temp_list) != self.NUM_TANKS:
raise ValueError(f"acid_temp_list 需要 {self.NUM_TANKS} 个元素")
self.thickness = thickness
self.width = width
self.steel_grade = steel_grade
self.acid_conc_list = acid_conc_list
self.acid_temp_list = acid_temp_list
self.scale_weight = scale_weight
self.target_pi = target_pi
self.K_cal = _load_cal().get(self.CAL_KEY, 1.0)
def _k_i(self, conc, temp_c):
T_k = temp_c + 273.15
arrhenius = math.exp(-self.EA_R * (1.0/T_k - 1.0/self.T_REF))
c_factor = max(conc/self.C_REF, 0.01) ** self.N_CONC
scale_corr = (8.5 / max(self.scale_weight, 1.0)) ** 0.3
return self.K0 * arrhenius * c_factor * self.SCALE_RATE_FACTOR * scale_corr * self.K_cal
def _compute_pi(self, v_mpm):
v_mps = v_mpm / 60.0
pi = 0.0
pp, rt = [], []
for i in range(self.NUM_TANKS):
t_i = self.TANK_LENGTH / v_mps
k_i = self._k_i(self.acid_conc_list[i], self.acid_temp_list[i])
pi = 100.0 - (100.0 - pi) * math.exp(-k_i * t_i)
pp.append(round(pi, 2)); rt.append(round(t_i, 1))
return pi, pp, rt
def _risk_level(self, speed, pi):
avg_conc = sum(self.acid_conc_list)/len(self.acid_conc_list)
avg_temp = sum(self.acid_temp_list)/len(self.acid_temp_list)
s = 0
if pi < 85: s += 3
elif pi < 92: s += 1
if speed > 140: s += 2
if avg_conc < 120: s += 2
if avg_temp < 68: s += 2
if self.thickness > 4.0: s += 1
return "HIGH" if s >= 5 else "MEDIUM" if s >= 2 else "LOW"
def _physics_result(self):
pi_min, _, _ = self._compute_pi(self.V_MIN)
if pi_min < self.target_pi:
pi, pp, rt = self._compute_pi(self.V_MIN)
return {
"max_speed": self.V_MIN, "pi_per_tank": pp,
"residence_time_per_tank": rt, "total_pi": round(pi, 2),
"under_pickling_risk": self._risk_level(self.V_MIN, pi),
"warning": "酸液条件不足,建议检查酸浓度和温度",
"K_cal": self.K_cal, "source": "physics",
}
lo, hi, best = self.V_MIN, self.V_MAX, self.V_MIN
while hi - lo >= 0.5:
mid = (lo + hi) / 2.0
if self._compute_pi(mid)[0] >= self.target_pi:
best = mid; lo = mid + 0.5
else:
hi = mid - 0.5
best = math.floor(best)
pi, pp, rt = self._compute_pi(best)
return {
"max_speed": best, "pi_per_tank": pp,
"residence_time_per_tank": rt, "total_pi": round(pi, 2),
"under_pickling_risk": self._risk_level(best, pi),
"warning": None, "K_cal": self.K_cal, "source": "physics",
}
def calculate(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
x = [self.thickness, self.scale_weight] + self.acid_conc_list + self.acid_temp_list
pt = _pt_infer("acid_speed", x)
if pt is not None:
raw_speed = pt[0] * self.K_cal
best = int(max(self.V_MIN, min(self.V_MAX, round(raw_speed))))
pi, pp, rt = self._compute_pi(best)
return {
"max_speed": best, "pi_per_tank": pp,
"residence_time_per_tank": rt, "total_pi": round(pi, 2),
"under_pickling_risk": self._risk_level(best, pi),
"warning": None, "K_cal": self.K_cal, "source": "pt",
}
return self._physics_result()
def calibrate(self, actual_max_speed, actual_quality_ok):
predicted = self.calculate()["max_speed"]
if not actual_quality_ok:
adj = 0.95
else:
ratio = actual_max_speed / max(predicted, 1.0)
adj = max(0.7, min(1.3, 1.0 + 0.3*(ratio - 1.0)))
self.K_cal = round(self.K_cal * adj, 4)
cal = _load_cal(); cal[self.CAL_KEY] = self.K_cal; _save_cal(cal)
return self.K_cal
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# 2. 张力设定模型
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
class TensionModel:
"""
灰箱: T_base = coef × σ_yield × A各区段比例系数
PT栈: 4 维输入 → 10 区段张力 kN
输入: [thickness, width, yield_strength, tension_coef]
"""
ZONE_RATIOS = {
"inlet": 1.00, "s1_roller": 0.85, "acid_entry": 0.78,
"acid1": 0.72, "acid2": 0.68, "acid3": 0.68,
"rinse": 0.70, "leveler": 0.76, "s2_roller": 0.88, "outlet": 1.00,
}
ZONE_NAMES_CN = {
"inlet": "入口张力辊", "s1_roller": "S1夹送辊",
"acid_entry": "酸洗入口辊", "acid1": "1#酸槽",
"acid2": "2#酸槽", "acid3": "3#酸槽",
"rinse": "漂洗段辊", "leveler": "拉矫机",
"s2_roller": "S2夹送辊", "outlet": "出口张力辊",
}
@staticmethod
def _zone_cal_key(zone): return f"tension_zone_{zone}"
def __init__(self, thickness, width, yield_strength, tension_coef=0.25):
self.thickness = thickness
self.width = width
self.yield_strength = yield_strength
self.tension_coef = tension_coef
cal = _load_cal()
self.zone_kcal = {z: cal.get(self._zone_cal_key(z), 1.0) for z in self.ZONE_RATIOS}
def _physics_zones(self, t_base_kn):
zones = {}
for zone, ratio in self.ZONE_RATIOS.items():
k = self.zone_kcal[zone]
zones[zone] = {
"tension_kN": round(t_base_kn * ratio * k, 2),
"ratio": ratio, "k_cal": k,
"name_cn": self.ZONE_NAMES_CN[zone],
}
return zones
def calculate(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
cross = self.thickness * self.width
t_base = self.tension_coef * self.yield_strength * cross / 1000.0
pt = _pt_infer("tension", [self.thickness, self.width, self.yield_strength, self.tension_coef])
if pt is not None and _scalers and "tension" in _scalers:
zone_names = _scalers["tension"].get("zone_names", list(self.ZONE_RATIOS.keys()))
zones = {}
for i, zone in enumerate(zone_names):
k = self.zone_kcal.get(zone, 1.0)
kn = round(max(0.1, pt[i]) * k, 2)
zones[zone] = {
"tension_kN": kn,
"ratio": self.ZONE_RATIOS.get(zone, 1.0),
"k_cal": k,
"name_cn": self.ZONE_NAMES_CN.get(zone, zone),
}
source = "pt"
else:
zones = self._physics_zones(t_base)
source = "physics"
density = 7850.0
mass_per_m = density * (self.thickness/1000.0) * (self.width/1000.0)
accel_kn = round(mass_per_m * (30.0/60.0) / 1000.0, 3)
t_max = round(t_base * self.zone_kcal.get("inlet", 1.0), 2)
return {
"T_max": t_max, "T_base": round(t_base, 2),
"cross_section_mm2": round(cross, 1),
"zones": zones,
"weld_speed_limit": 60.0,
"weld_tension_kN": round(t_max * 0.60, 2),
"accel_tension": accel_kn,
"zone_kcal": self.zone_kcal,
"source": source,
}
def calibrate(self, zone, measured_kn):
if zone not in self.ZONE_RATIOS:
raise ValueError(f"未知区段: {zone}")
t_base = self.tension_coef * self.yield_strength * self.thickness * self.width / 1000.0
pred = t_base * self.ZONE_RATIOS[zone] * self.zone_kcal[zone]
adj = max(0.5, min(2.0, 1.0 + 0.4*(measured_kn/max(pred,0.1) - 1.0)))
self.zone_kcal[zone] = round(self.zone_kcal[zone] * adj, 4)
cal = _load_cal(); cal[self._zone_cal_key(zone)] = self.zone_kcal[zone]; _save_cal(cal)
return self.zone_kcal
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# 3. 质量预测模型
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
class QualityPredictionModel:
"""
灰箱: Arrhenius PI 计算 + 速度惩罚
PT栈: 6 维输入 → [pi_score, surface_score]
输入: [thickness, avg_speed, acid_conc_avg, acid_temp_avg, scale_weight, fe_conc_avg]
"""
EA_R = 5413.0
T_REF = 348.15
C_REF = 180.0
N_CONC = 1.2
CAL_KEY = "quality_kcal"
def __init__(self, thickness, avg_speed, acid_conc_avg, acid_temp_avg,
scale_weight=8.5, fe_conc_avg=60.0):
self.thickness = thickness
self.avg_speed = avg_speed
self.acid_conc_avg = acid_conc_avg
self.acid_temp_avg = acid_temp_avg
self.scale_weight = scale_weight
self.fe_conc_avg = fe_conc_avg
self.K_cal = _load_cal().get(self.CAL_KEY, 1.0)
def _pi(self):
T_k = self.acid_temp_avg + 273.15
arr = math.exp(-self.EA_R*(1.0/T_k - 1.0/self.T_REF))
c_factor = max(self.acid_conc_avg/self.C_REF, 0.01)**self.N_CONC
fe_inh = 1.0 - max(0.0, (self.fe_conc_avg-80.0)/200.0)*0.35
scale_corr = (8.5/max(self.scale_weight,1.0))**0.3
exposure = (1.2*arr*c_factor*fe_inh*scale_corr*18.0*6) / (self.avg_speed/60.0)
return min(max(100.0*(1.0-math.exp(-exposure/10.0))*self.K_cal, 0), 100)
def _surface(self, pi):
if self.avg_speed < 60:
ss = 80.0
elif self.avg_speed <= 140:
ss = 80.0 + 15.0*(self.avg_speed-60)/80.0
else:
ss = 95.0 - 30.0*((self.avg_speed-140)/40.0)
return min(max(pi*0.65 + ss*0.35, 0), 100)
def _grade(self, pi, suf):
c = (pi+suf)/2.0
if c >= 90: return "A1"
if c >= 80: return "A2"
if c >= 70: return "B1"
if c >= 60: return "B2"
return "C"
def _recommendations(self, pi, suf):
recs = []
if self.fe_conc_avg > 80:
recs.append(f"铁离子浓度偏高({self.fe_conc_avg:.0f} g/L建议加速换酸")
if pi < 80:
recs.append("酸洗指数偏低,建议提高酸液浓度至 180 g/L 以上,或升温至 80°C")
if pi < 65:
recs.append(f"欠酸洗风险高,建议将线速降至 {max(self.avg_speed*0.75, 20):.0f} m/min")
if self.acid_temp_avg < 70:
recs.append(f"酸液温度偏低({self.acid_temp_avg:.1f}°C建议升温至 75~85°C")
if self.acid_conc_avg < 120:
recs.append(f"游离酸浓度偏低({self.acid_conc_avg:.0f} g/L建议补充新酸")
if self.avg_speed > 150:
recs.append(f"线速过高({self.avg_speed:.0f} m/min欠酸洗风险")
if self.scale_weight > 12.0:
recs.append(f"氧化铁皮偏重({self.scale_weight:.1f} g/m²建议检查加热炉气氛")
if not recs:
recs.append("工艺参数在正常范围内,当前设定可继续保持")
return recs
def calculate(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
x = [self.thickness, self.avg_speed, self.acid_conc_avg,
self.acid_temp_avg, self.scale_weight, self.fe_conc_avg]
pt = _pt_infer("quality", x)
if pt is not None:
pi = round(float(min(max(pt[0]*self.K_cal, 0), 100)), 1)
suf = round(float(min(max(pt[1]*self.K_cal, 0), 100)), 1)
src = "pt"
else:
pi = round(self._pi(), 1)
suf = round(self._surface(pi), 1)
src = "physics"
return {
"pi_score": pi, "surface_score": suf,
"overall_grade": self._grade(pi, suf),
"recommendations": self._recommendations(pi, suf),
"K_cal": self.K_cal, "source": src,
}
def calibrate(self, actual_grade):
grade_map = {"A1": 95, "A2": 85, "B1": 75, "B2": 65, "C": 50}
target = grade_map.get(actual_grade, 75)
res = self.calculate()
pred = (res["pi_score"] + res["surface_score"]) / 2.0
adj = max(0.7, min(1.3, 1.0 + 0.3*(target/max(pred,1.0) - 1.0)))
self.K_cal = round(self.K_cal * adj, 4)
cal = _load_cal(); cal[self.CAL_KEY] = self.K_cal; _save_cal(cal)
return self.K_cal
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# 4. 消耗预测模型(无 PT 版本,定额+修正公式足够)
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
class AcidConsumptionModel:
ACID_WITH_REGEN = 2.0
ACID_WITHOUT_REGEN = 35.0
STEAM_UNIT = 39.8
POWER_UNIT = 14.0
COOLING_UNIT = 1.21
def __init__(self, thickness, width, coil_weight_kg,
has_regen_station=True, fe_conc_avg=60.0):
self.thickness = thickness
self.width = width
self.coil_weight_kg = coil_weight_kg
self.has_regen_station = has_regen_station
self.fe_conc_avg = fe_conc_avg
def calculate(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
wt = self.coil_weight_kg / 1000.0
acid_base = self.ACID_WITH_REGEN if self.has_regen_station else self.ACID_WITHOUT_REGEN
fe_factor = 1.0 + max(0.0, (self.fe_conc_avg-100.0)/100.0)*0.4
acid_unit = round(acid_base * fe_factor, 3)
return {
"coil_weight_t": round(wt, 3),
"acid_consumption_kg": round(acid_unit * wt, 2),
"acid_unit_kg_per_t": acid_unit,
"steam_consumption_kg": round(self.STEAM_UNIT * wt, 2),
"steam_unit_kg_per_t": self.STEAM_UNIT,
"power_consumption_kwh": round(self.POWER_UNIT * wt, 2),
"power_unit_kwh_per_t": self.POWER_UNIT,
"cooling_water_m3": round(self.COOLING_UNIT * wt, 3),
"cooling_water_unit_m3_per_t": self.COOLING_UNIT,
"fe_conc_factor": round(fe_factor, 3),
}